Threat Response

What can you really do when someone does have a gun and is shooting?

I'll start with a story. When our group first arrived in Iraq, we were treated with a nearly constant barrage of warning sirens - indicating an incoming rocket or mortar attack. If you hear the siren, per official instructions, you are to grab your personal protective equipment (PPE) and head immediately to a bunker. The sirens don't tell you when or where something is going to hit, just that something will hit, somewhere. After a solid eight hours of this, no one in our group had heard a single explosion. Night time. The sirens continued into the night. Gradually, fewer and fewer people were grabbing their stuff and going to the bunker. Once everyone got in bed, almost no one was going to the bunker. At about 2330 - Very, very big BOOM - followed by our tent getting sprayed with dirt. No one was hurt, but in five seconds everyone had their PPE on and they were sitting in the bunker. Yeah, that got our attention. Getting concerned after the fact does not help very much - though it certainly impacts how you respond to every future incident. But, all it takes is one time of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

According to iCasualties. org, there have been 4,311 military deaths and 31,169 military injuries in Iraq since we first went in (2003). Civilian casualties are not tracked. Civilians from the United States and other countries with contractors in Iraq are not quite as exposed, though there are certainly exceptions to that general rule - especially in the case of truckers - the guys who are the lifeblood of everyone there. However, it is appropriate to bear in mind that this reflects cumulative casualties over a six year period in a zone of conflict. The burden has been enormous on Iraqi citizens. Iraq was not particularly a safe place even before this war, the threat just changed names. I have no intention of diminishing the value of any single life - military or civilian, American or Iraqi or Indian (lots of Indian workers in Iraq), or those from any other country. I've worked with them, they are all good, hardworking people.

Over six years, military deaths stand at an average of 718 per year, combat related injuries at 5,195 per year. That is for a whole country, close to the size of California, in a conflict zone, where Americans are targets and stand out like a sore thumb. In contrast, Detroit experienced nearly 24,000 violent crimes in 2007, of which 418 alone involved murder or non-negligent manslaughter. One city for one year has over half the fatalities associated with violence as the entire country of Iraq.

Wikipedia's statistics on fatalities from automobile accidents is also a good comparison where the average number of fatalities for handgun related causes also tops 40,000 per year. We have mandatory seat belt laws and air bags, but our chances of dying in an automobile accident or about the same as our chances of actually getting shot. Or, we can look at drowning - 7,000 deaths per year, and yet it is mandatory for every boat to have a life vests and floatation devices.

Point is, that you don't know when someone is going to freak out and go on a rampage at school, in a mall or simply just drive by and pop one off. There are some who take precautions and are prepared for situations when they happen, and they have a fighting chance. Leastwise, if you hear a gun shot, and you are still standing, you can take action to defend yourself. Get down, low to the ground, reduce your chance of being seen, reduce your profile in the case that you are seen. The military trains soldiers to use cover and concealment, but also to crouch and crawl. But, you can also get the equivalent of a safety belt or life preserver, by getting some bullet resistant protection. Nothing is completely bullet proof, but when something has a 97% chance of stopping a bullet from virtually any handgun from hitting your vital organs - you do feel much safer.

You do what you can. But, to say this is hype or over-reaction? It is when nothing happens. It is not when something does happen. America likes to react to things after they happen - like this global financial crisis. We've been talking and talking about the growing amount of household and government debt since at least the 1980's. Did we do anything about it? Only after it became a massive crisis. We like to laugh at the people who warn us - like Roubini and Celiente. After it happens, after it gets personal - that's when we get concerned. Or, we can look at the trends, look what is happening, and maybe take a reasonable step or two to prepare for them before the problems do get up close and personal.